Insecurity, high and multiple taxation, and unreliable power supply remained the most severe challenges confronting Nigerian businesses in November 2025, even as overall business sentiment improved and expectations for growth, employment, and exchange-rate stability strengthened.

These findings are contained in the November 2025 Business Expectations Survey (BES) released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The survey provides insight into how firms across sectors perceive the operating environment and the key constraints shaping business decisions.

Insecurity tops business constraints

According to the survey, insecurity ranked as the most significant constraint on business activity, recording an index score of 70.1. This reflects the persistent cost of security challenges on production, distribution, and investment, particularly in regions affected by banditry, insurgency, and communal unrest.

Businesses reported that insecurity continues to disrupt supply chains, raise logistics and insurance costs, and discourage capital investment, especially in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. For many firms, security-related spending has become a permanent operational expense, eroding margins and limiting expansion plans.

High or multiple taxation followed closely, with an index score of 69.7. Respondents highlighted the cumulative burden of levies imposed by federal, state, and local governments, noting that overlapping taxes and regulatory charges continue to squeeze profitability and complicate compliance.

Insufficient power supply ranked third at 69.3, underscoring the enduring challenge of unreliable electricity. Many businesses remain heavily dependent on self-generated power, which significantly increases operating costs through fuel, maintenance, and equipment expenses.

High interest rates also featured prominently, scoring 67.2. Tight monetary conditions and elevated lending rates have constrained access to credit, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises. Financial problems, including liquidity pressures and weak balance sheets, rounded out the top five constraints with an index score of 64.7.

Summarising the findings, the report stated: “Respondents identified insecurity (70.1), high/multiple taxes (69.7), insufficient power supply (69.3), high interest rate (67.2), and financial problems (64.7) as the top five business constraints in November 2025, highlighting factors that directly impact operational stability and profitability.”

Other notable challenges included high bank charges (64.0), unclear economic laws (61.4), and an unfavourable economic climate (61.2). At the lower end of the top ten were poor infrastructure and an unfavourable political climate, both at 57.7, suggesting that financial and operational bottlenecks were more pressing than political concerns during the review period.

Confidence improves despite structural bottlenecks

Despite these persistent constraints, the survey revealed a generally positive outlook among businesses. The aggregate Confidence Index stood at 37.5 points in November 2025, indicating optimism about the macroeconomic environment.

The CBN projects that confidence will continue to strengthen, rising to 43.9 points in the next month, 49.6 points over the next three months, and peaking at 52.8 points over the next six months. This trajectory suggests that firms expect gradual improvements in economic activity and operating conditions.

All major sectors expressed optimism. The industry sector recorded the highest confidence reading at 38.1 points in November, reflecting positive expectations around production and demand. Agriculture followed at 36.3 points, while the services sector posted 37.5 points.

Expectations remained positive across all sectors for the near, medium, and six-month horizons, pointing to sustained confidence in economic recovery despite ongoing structural challenges.

Firm-level and regional outlook

At the level of firms’ own operations, confidence was strongest in the Mining and Quarrying sector, which recorded an index of 50.0 points. This reflects strong sentiment within extractive industries, likely supported by expectations of improved output and export demand.

Construction followed with 33.3 points, while market services recorded 31.6 points. Manufacturing, agriculture, and non-market services also remained in positive territory, signalling broad-based optimism across the economy.

Respondents were particularly upbeat about the volume of business activity. Indices tracking business activity, total orders, financial condition, and access to credit were all positive. Firms expect favourable conditions in December 2025, February 2026, and May 2026, pointing to expectations of rising demand and improved turnover in the near to medium term.

Regionally, the macroeconomic outlook was positive across all zones, though uneven. The North-East recorded the highest optimism at 52.7 points, while the South-East lagged with 18.7 points. Expectations for the next month and next three months were strongest in the North-East and North-West, while the North-West and South-West led optimism over the six-month horizon.

The takeaway

The CBN survey highlights a familiar contradiction in Nigeria’s business environment: rising optimism about growth and activity alongside deeply entrenched structural challenges. While firms are positioning for expansion, analysts note that sustaining confidence will depend on tangible improvements in security, tax harmonisation, power supply, and access to affordable credit. Without progress on these fronts, the gains in sentiment may prove difficult to translate into lasting economic growth.

Nigeria’s business environment is expected to strengthen steadily over the next six months, with business confidence projected to rise to one of its strongest levels in recent years. This outlook is contained in the November 2025 Business Expectations Survey (BES) released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The survey indicates that while confidence remained at moderate levels in November, businesses across key sectors are increasingly optimistic about the macroeconomic environment and future economic activity. The CBN projects that the Business Confidence Index will rise significantly by mid-2026, reflecting expectations of stronger output, expanding operations, and improved demand conditions.

What the data shows

According to the November 2025 BES, overall business confidence stood at 37.5 index points during the review month. While still modest, this figure reflects positive sentiment among respondents regarding prevailing economic conditions. More importantly, the survey projects a steady improvement in confidence, rising to 52.8 index points over the next six months.

“The confidence index in November 2025 stood at 37.5 points, reflecting optimism among respondents regarding the macroeconomic environment. This optimism is projected to improve continuously, reaching a peak of 52.8 index points over the next six months,” the CBN stated in the report.

Sectoral data revealed broad-based optimism across the economy. The Industry sector recorded the highest confidence reading at 38.1 index points, driven by expectations of higher production and improved operating conditions. Agriculture and Services followed closely, underscoring a general recovery across productive sectors.

On expectations regarding firms’ own operations, Mining and Quarrying stood out with the highest confidence reading of 50.0 index points, suggesting strong expectations for output growth and business activity in the sector.

Regional outlook

The survey also revealed notable regional variations in business sentiment. The North-East emerged as the most optimistic region, recording a confidence index of 52.7 points, reflecting expectations of improved activity and business conditions.

In contrast, the South-East posted the lowest confidence reading at 18.7 index points. Despite this, all regions reported positive expectations across the review periods, indicating that optimism, though uneven, remains widespread across the country.

What’s driving the optimism

The improving outlook is closely linked to expectations of business expansion, rising activity levels, and stronger labour demand. Respondents expressed optimism about the volume of business activity in the near term, suggesting that firms anticipate increased orders, higher sales, and improved cash flows.

In line with this outlook, many businesses signalled intentions to hire additional workers in December 2025, pointing to potential gains in employment. Sectoral analysis showed that the Construction sector recorded the highest expansion prospects, reflecting increased expectations around infrastructure and building activity. Meanwhile, Mining and Quarrying led employment prospects during the review month.

These trends suggest that businesses are positioning themselves to take advantage of a gradually improving economic environment, supported by expectations of stronger demand and stabilising macroeconomic conditions.

Persistent challenges remain

Despite the positive outlook, the survey highlights several persistent headwinds facing businesses. Respondents identified insecurity, high taxes, poor power supply, elevated interest rates, and financial constraints as the most significant challenges affecting operations in November.

Poor infrastructure and an unfavourable political climate ranked lower among reported constraints, suggesting that financial and structural issues currently weigh more heavily on business confidence than political considerations.

The broader context

Supporting the survey’s findings, Nairametrics reports that Nigeria’s private sector continued to expand in November 2025, as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 56.4 from 55.4 in October. A PMI reading above 50 signals expansion, reinforcing signs of a steady economic rebound this year.

Overall, the CBN survey paints a picture of cautious but growing optimism among Nigerian businesses. While firms expect stronger growth and improved activity levels in the coming months, the sustainability of these gains will depend largely on addressing insecurity, high operating costs, and access to affordable financing.