Equities

The Nigerian Exchange closed slightly lower on Friday, January 30, 2026, with the All-Share Index (ASI) declining by 0.09% to settle at 165,370.4 points, down from the previous session’s close of 165,527.3.

Despite the marginal decline in prices, trading activity strengthened, as total volume rose to 687 million shares, compared with 550 million shares recorded in the prior session.

Market capitalisation held firm at N106.1 trillion, with investors executing a total of 41,553 deals, keeping the market comfortably above the N106 trillion level.

The daily decline trimmed the market’s year-to-date return slightly to 6.27%, from 6.37% in the previous session, reflecting continued cautious sentiment among investors.

On the gainers’ chart, Zichis and Abbey Mortgage Bank led advancing stocks, gaining 9.97% and 9.94%, respectively, as bargain hunting and speculative interest supported selected counters.

RT Briscoe, HMCALL, and Omatek also posted strong gains, rounding out the top five advancers for the session.

On the flip side, selling pressure weighed heavily on Learn Africa, Livestock, and LivingTrust Mortgage Bank, each of which declined by the maximum daily limit of 10.00%. DeapCap and McNichols also featured among the top losers, reflecting broad-based weakness in selected small- and mid-cap stocks.

Trading by volume was dominated by Veritaskap, which recorded 80.4 million shares, followed by NSLTech (Secure Electronic Technology) with 79.2 million shares, and DeapCap with 33.3 million shares.

Access Holdings and Zenith Bank completed the top five by volume, trading 30.9 million and 30.5 million shares, respectively.

By value, Aradel led market transactions with trades worth N2.3 billion, followed closely by Zenith Bank at N2.1 billion. PZ Cussons recorded N1.05 billion in trades, while Access Holdings and NAHCO posted transaction values of N703 million and N691.6 million, respectively.

Among SWOOTs (stocks with market capitalisation above N1 trillion), performance was largely muted. Aradel posted a marginal gain of 0.03%, reflecting limited upside among large-cap stocks.

FUGAZ banking stocks recorded mixed performances. First Holdco declined sharply by 5.26%, while Access Holdings fell 0.88% and UBA eased by 0.45%. In contrast, GTCO gained 0.15%, and Zenith Bank edged up by 0.14%.

The continued pullback in the ASI signals growing caution among investors, raising the risk of a deeper short-term correction if selling pressure persists.

With gains concentrated in a few counters and mixed sector performance, overall market breadth remains weak, suggesting that investors may need to remain selective and focus on fundamentally strong stocks while carefully managing entry points.

Looking ahead, the All-Share Index continues to show signs of retracement, and the depth of the pullback will likely depend on whether renewed buying interest emerges in mid- and large-cap stocks to support broader market momentum.

Nigeria’s equity market has entered 2026 on a historic high, reshaping the country’s financial landscape and attracting renewed attention from both local and offshore investors. Market capitalisation on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) has crossed the N100 trillion mark, while the All-Share Index (ASI) closed last week at 165,512 points, translating to a year-to-date return of about 6.36%.

At first glance, the rally appears convincing. Over recent months, the ASI has pushed into uncharted territory, oscillating between 155,000 and 167,000 points, suggesting that bullish sentiment could persist through 2026. Some analysts, citing ongoing reforms, improved macroeconomic coordination, and the prospect of new high-profile listings, project potential gains of up to 40% for the year.

However, beneath the glittering headline numbers lie structural and systemic risks that investors cannot afford to ignore.

Premium valuations and the illusion of depth

The Nigerian stock market is increasingly trading at a premium relative to historical norms. This has been driven by a mix of structural reforms, tighter monetary conditions that have reduced speculative alternatives, and a sharp imbalance between demand and the supply of quality listed assets. Simply put, too much money is chasing too few fundamentally strong stocks.

This imbalance has pushed prices higher, but it has also exposed one of the market’s most persistent weaknesses: liquidity.

The “ghost” of liquidity

On paper, many NGX-listed stocks appear liquid. In practice, liquidity is heavily concentrated in a narrow group of bellwether names — mainly Tier-1 banks and a handful of blue-chip corporates such as MTN Nigeria, Dangote Cement, BUA Cement, Zenith Bank, and UBA.

Beyond the NGX-30, trading volumes thin out sharply. For many mid- and small-cap stocks, liquidity becomes what analysts describe as a “ghost”: visible in theory, but difficult to access in meaningful size without triggering sharp price declines. Investors may hold shares in fundamentally sound companies, yet struggle to exit positions without accepting deep discounts.

This liquidity risk remains one of the most underappreciated threats in the current rally.

Currency risk and real returns

Another major caveat is the naira. Nominal equity returns mean little if they are eroded by currency depreciation. A 30% gain in stocks, for instance, offers no real protection if the naira weakens by 40% against the dollar or euro over the same period.

This dynamic explains why foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remain cautious despite improved mid-term stability in the foreign exchange market. For offshore investors, Nigerian equities represent a dual bet — on company performance and on currency stability. Until confidence in the naira’s long-term purchasing power improves, foreign inflows are likely to remain selective.

Election-year pressures ahead

Looking ahead, 2026 carries its own risks. As a pre-election year ahead of the 2027 general polls, rising government expenditure could fuel inflationary pressures, distort market signals, and introduce uncertainty into fiscal and monetary policy planning. Historically, such conditions have tended to weigh on equity valuations, particularly in sectors sensitive to macro instability.

Structural challenges also persist, including shallow investor diversification, lingering restrictions on retail participation (despite recent reforms), currency controls, and broader economic fragilities linked to debt and external shocks.

Dividends under pressure

For income-focused investors, especially pension funds and local retail players, the outlook is further complicated by regulatory changes. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has suspended dividend payments for some banks as part of its recapitalisation drive ahead of the March 2026 deadline.

This marks a significant shift in a market where bank stocks have traditionally been prized for yield. While recapitalisation is expected to strengthen the financial system in the long run, the short-term impact is a drying up of dividends — a key pillar of investor demand.

Why optimism hasn’t vanished

Despite these caveats, optimism has not disappeared. In the medium term, the market could receive a major boost from the anticipated listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, widely expected to be the most significant capital market event of 2026. With an estimated valuation of around $20 billion, the listing could inject substantial liquidity and enhance the global profile of Nigeria’s capital market.

In addition, recapitalised Nigerian banks are evolving into fortress-like financial institutions capable of underwriting large-scale infrastructure projects. Price targets for Tier-1 lenders such as Zenith Bank and UBA have already been revised upward, with return-on-equity forecasts approaching 45% by the end of 2026.

Bottom line

Nigeria’s stock market rally is real, but it is not without risks. Liquidity constraints, currency exposure, election-year uncertainties, and dividend pressures all complicate the investment case. For investors, the message is clear: opportunities exist, but success in this market will depend less on broad optimism and more on timing, stock selection, and risk management.

The Nigerian equity market recorded a mild rebound in the trading session ended January 23, 2026, with the All-Share Index (ASI) gaining 0.07% to close at 165,512.2 points, up from 165,397.4 points in the previous session.

The recovery represents a 114.8-point gain, coming a day after the market suffered a steep 870.2-point decline, or 0.52%, highlighting cautious bargain hunting by investors.

Despite the positive close, overall market activity softened. Trading volume declined to 731 million shares, compared with 768 million shares exchanged in the prior session, suggesting that investors remain selective.

Mid-cap stocks dominated activity during the session, with newly listed ZICHIS Agro Allied attracting significant attention and trading 48.8 million shares.

What the data is saying
The modest gain lifted the ASI’s year-to-date return to 6.36%, from 6.29%, pointing to a tentative return of buying interest after recent losses.

On the gainers’ chart, Morison and UHOMREIT led the market, each advancing 9.94%. On the downside, Neimeth and NSLTech topped the losers’ table, shedding 9.86% and 9.35%, respectively.

Activity was concentrated in mid- and low-cap stocks. Chams led the volume chart with 76.8 million shares, followed by NSLTech with 67.9 million shares. Zenith Bank ranked third with 49.1 million shares, while ZICHIS Agro Allied and Fidelity Bank completed the top five with 48.8 million and 39.6 million shares, respectively.

By value, Zenith Bank dominated trading, recording transactions worth N3.4 billion. Seplat followed with N1.7 billion, while Lafarge, GTCO, and Aradel posted turnover of N1.5 billion, N1.4 billion, and N1.3 billion, respectively.

Top 5 gainers
Morison gained 9.94% to close at N7.52
UHOMREIT rose 9.94% to N71.35
SCOA advanced 9.93% to N23.80
RT Briscoe climbed 9.93% to N5.98
AustinLaz increased 9.78% to N4.49

Top 5 losers
Neimeth fell 9.86% to N13.25
NSLTech declined 9.35% to N0.97
Eterna dropped 8.23% to N28.45
UPL shed 6.25% to N6.00
Eunisell lost 5.84% to N153.95

SWOOTs and FUGAZ performance
Among SWOOTs (stocks with market capitalisation above N1 trillion), performance was mixed. Lafarge gained 4%, while International Breweries declined 1.42%.

The FUGAZ banking stocks recorded a largely positive session. GTCO advanced 3.03%, Zenith Bank rose 2.08%, and Access Holdings gained 1.59%. UBA, however, closed lower, shedding 1.35%.

Why this matters
The modest rebound suggests that selling pressure is easing, but the recovery remains fragile. Gains were driven by a handful of large-cap stocks, while overall trading activity stayed subdued.

This indicates that investor confidence is still cautious, with participants carefully picking positions rather than committing broadly to the market.

Market outlook
The All-Share Index is still searching for short-term stability as investors reassess valuation levels and entry points.

While renewed interest in select large-cap stocks could support further upside, the market remains vulnerable to near-term pullbacks amid stretched prices and cautious sentiment.

Nigeria recorded a net foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflow of N161.05 billion into equities in 2025, pointing to a cautious but improving foreign risk appetite amid persistent market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Data from the Nigerian Exchange show that total foreign equity inflows for the year reached N1.40 trillion, marginally higher than total outflows of N1.24 trillion, resulting in a modest positive net position. While the outcome represents a recovery from the previous year, the underlying flow pattern highlights fragile and uneven foreign participation.

With the exception of September, monthly net inflows were largely subdued. March ended almost flat with a net inflow of N0.05 billion, while May (N13.31 billion), June (N6.33 billion), and August (N18.47 billion) provided incremental support. Even August’s inflow—one of the stronger months—was still less than one-tenth of September’s surge, underscoring the skewed nature of the annual performance.

Recovery from 2024 outflows, but still fragile

The positive net inflow in 2025 marked a clear turnaround from 2024, when foreign portfolio outflows of N455.62 billion exceeded inflows of N396.41 billion, resulting in a net outflow of N59.21 billion. However, the recovery remains structurally weak, driven more by episodic large trades than broad-based foreign confidence.

In December 2025, foreign transaction values jumped sharply, largely due to block trades. Despite gross inflows of N223.79 billion and outflows of N234.30 billion, the month closed with a net outflow, indicating that heightened activity did not translate into sustained net buying.

Overall foreign portfolio activity expanded significantly in 2025. Inflows rose 254.24% year-on-year, while outflows increased 172.86%, reflecting stronger two-way trading rather than one-directional capital inflows. Total foreign portfolio transactions climbed to N2.65 trillion, more than tripling the N852.03 billion recorded in 2024, a 210.72% year-on-year increase.

A year dominated by profit-taking

For much of 2025, foreign flows were characterised by profit-taking and tactical exits. Net outflows were recorded in January, February, April, July, October, November, and December, suggesting that foreign investors were frequently selling into rallies rather than building long-term exposure.

July stood out with a sharp net outflow of N44.99 billion, followed by sustained losses in November (N36.66 billion) and December (N10.51 billion). This pattern reflects continued sensitivity to equity valuations, foreign exchange dynamics, and broader macroeconomic risks, prompting investors to lock in gains.

September skewed the full-year result

The positive net inflow for 2025 was almost entirely driven by September, which alone contributed N263.30 billion—more than the total net inflow for the entire year. During the month, foreign inflows surged to N325.46 billion, while outflows were contained at N62.16 billion, pointing to major block trades, index rebalancing, or institutional portfolio reallocations.

Without September’s exceptional performance, the year would have closed with a net outflow, highlighting the fragile foundation of foreign investor confidence in Nigerian equities.

What the flow pattern tells us

Foreign equity flows in 2025 reflect selective, event-driven engagement rather than long-term conviction investing. While equities benefited indirectly from foreign exchange reforms and improved price discovery, participation remained tactical and short-term.

High domestic interest rates kept fixed-income instruments more attractive, positioning equities as a secondary option for foreign investors. Global liquidity conditions and frontier-market rotations enabled brief inflows, but competition from other frontier markets limited their scale and durability.

Although tax reforms and fiscal signalling helped anchor medium-term confidence, they were not sufficient to generate sustained foreign equity inflows.

Bottom line: Nigeria’s positive net FPI position in 2025 is encouraging but remains structurally weak, heavily reliant on isolated large inflows. Converting episodic foreign participation into durable long-term capital will require deeper macroeconomic stability, clearer FX policy direction, and stronger earnings visibility across listed companies.

Guinea Insurance Plc has applied to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) for approval to raise N5.30 billion through a rights issue, as part of efforts to strengthen its capital base and comply with new regulatory capital requirements in Nigeria’s insurance industry.

The proposed rights issue involves the issuance of 5,295,200,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at an offer price of N1.10 per share. The offer is structured on the basis of two new shares for every three existing shares held, with January 21, 2026, set as the qualification date for eligible shareholders.

The application was submitted to the NGX through the company’s stockbrokers, Forte Financial Limited and Mega Equities Limited, and is currently awaiting regulatory approval and listing. Once approval is secured, the company’s registrars will dispatch the rights circular to shareholders and release the detailed offer timetable.

Details from the market filing

According to a market bulletin referenced NGXREG/IRD/MB8/26/01/21, the rights issue is aimed at bolstering Guinea Insurance’s capital position in line with ongoing reforms in the insurance sector. Only shareholders whose names appear on the company’s register at the close of business on January 21, 2026, will be eligible to participate in the offer.

Regulatory backdrop

The capital raise comes amid sweeping reforms introduced by the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, signed into law on July 31, 2025. The legislation overhauls insurance supervision and introduces higher minimum capital requirements alongside a risk-based capital (RBC) framework, designed to ensure insurers maintain capital levels that reflect the risks they underwrite.

Under the new regime:

• Life insurance companies must maintain a minimum capital base of N10 billion.

• Non-life (general) insurers are required to hold at least N15 billion.

• Reinsurance companies must have a minimum capital of N35 billion.

The Act also grants the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) expanded powers to mandate higher capital thresholds based on insurers’ risk profiles and to revoke licences of firms that fail to recapitalise within the stipulated timeframe.

NAICOM has since issued detailed recapitalisation guidelines covering submission of recapitalisation plans, quarterly progress reporting, capital verification procedures, and documentation requirements for admissible assets. All insurers and reinsurers are required to meet the new minimum capital requirements on or before July 30, 2026, with strict sanctions for non-compliance.

Stock performance on NGX

Guinea Insurance’s shares closed trading on Thursday, January 22, 2026, at N1.30 per share. The stock opened the year at N1.33 and has since declined by 2.26% year-to-date, placing it 141st on the NGX in terms of performance so far in 2026.

The stock has experienced significant volatility over the past year. It rose to N1.77 per share on August 22, 2025, before falling to N0.96 on December 11, 2025, and later recovering to N1.33 by December 31, 2025.

With 7.94 billion shares outstanding and a market capitalisation of approximately N10.3 billion, Guinea Insurance is currently ranked as the 110th most valuable stock on the NGX, accounting for about 0.0098% of the total equity market value.

Overall, the proposed rights issue represents a key step by Guinea Insurance to shore up capital, meet regulatory demands, and position itself more firmly within Nigeria’s evolving insurance landscape.