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Ellah Lakes’ N235 Billion Public Offer: Strategic Masterstroke or a Costly Leap of Faith?

Ellah Lakes Plc has launched one of the most ambitious capital-raising efforts on the Nigerian capital market in 2025: a public offer of 18.8 billion shares aimed at raising N235 billion. The proceeds are dedicated entirely to the acquisition of Agro-Allied Resources & Processing Nigeria Ltd (ARPN), a move the company believes will transform it into a major agro-industrial powerhouse.

The offer, which opened on 10 November at N12.50 per share, is scheduled to close on 5 December 2025. Investor sentiment has been lively. The stock price rose from N11.05 on the offering day to N13.85 last week, signalling optimism about the growth potential this acquisition could unlock for Ellah Lakes.

A Transformative Asset—What ARPN Brings to the Table

For Ellah Lakes, ARPN represents immediate scale, real operations, and tangible cash flow—three critical ingredients the company has historically lacked. Over the last twelve months, ARPN generated N1.62 billion in revenue and N335 million in net profit. The company controls more than 22,000 hectares of land and operates integrated processing facilities, with strong commercial relationships including a notable supply chain link with Dufil Prima Foods, a major FMCG player.

Depending on the final subscription level, the acquisition could reshape Ellah Lakes almost overnight. The company’s revenue base could expand more than twentyfold. Combined pre-offer assets amount to roughly N81 billion, with minimal debt exposure of under N500 million. Once the N235 billion equity injection is added, Ellah Lakes’ shareholders’ funds would rise from N36.5 billion to well above N271 billion. Total assets would grow to N316 billion, placing the company among Nigeria’s most well-capitalized agro-industrial firms.

ARPN’s financial outlook further strengthens the appeal. The company is projected to deliver N2.25 billion in tax-adjusted EBIT and N2.74 billion in free cash flow by 2026, with revenue forecast to reach as high as N76 billion by 2030. Its vertically integrated operations—from plantation to processing—offer cost efficiencies, yield stability, and scalability.

The Valuation Puzzle: Rational or Excessive?

Yet, the opportunity comes with significant valuation questions. ARPN’s acquisition price, slightly above N200 billion, assumes rapid growth, sustained profitability, and timely expansion of its 30MT/hr mill—an ambitious target for a business that only turned profitable in 2025.

Furthermore, ARPN’s valuation was determined using a steep 24.2% discount rate, underscoring the level of market-perceived risk. Although ARPN’s N32 billion debt will not transfer to Ellah Lakes, the blended cost of capital for the merged entity still hovers around 22%—a demanding hurdle rate. Simply put, the combined company must execute flawlessly to justify the price being paid. Any delays, operational hiccups, or weaker-than-expected yields could erode shareholder value.

This makes the acquisition both strategically compelling and financially precarious. The deal clearly fits Ellah Lakes’ long-term vision, but the margin for error is exceptionally narrow.

Ellah Lakes’ Existing Valuation: A Company Betting on the Future

A close look at Ellah Lakes’ current valuation reveals a simple truth: investors are not paying for the company as it is today but for what it hopes to become. Without ARPN, the valuation appears stretched. With ARPN, the growth narrative becomes credible. The acquisition is not one option among many—it is the backbone of Ellah Lakes’ future strategy.

Should Investors Subscribe? Promise Meets Risk

From a strategic standpoint, the arguments in favour of the offer are persuasive. ARPN brings scale, operating assets, profitability, and a growth runway that Ellah Lakes has long sought. The enlarged balance sheet would be one of the strongest in the sector, giving the company the financial depth to pursue expansion and withstand shocks.

However, the risks are equally significant. ARPN’s valuation is aggressive, its projections optimistic, and integration demands high levels of managerial discipline. Agriculture is inherently unpredictable—climate, logistics, and regulatory hurdles can derail even well-structured plans.

For investors, the Ellah Lakes offer is not a conservative play. It is a bold, high-conviction bet. The stock has previously traded at highs of N17.66, offering psychological comfort about potential upside. Short-term gains at the N12.50 offer price are possible, but long-term performance depends entirely on whether Ellah Lakes can harness ARPN’s potential and turn that promise into sustained, operational excellence.

In essence, the offer represents both a transformative opportunity—and a costly gamble.

Dangote Refinery Commits to Supplying 1.5 Billion Litres of Petrol Monthly From December

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced its readiness to fully meet Nigeria’s domestic petrol demand, pledging to supply 1.5 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) monthly—equivalent to 50 million litres per day—beginning December 2025. This output is scheduled to further increase to 1.7 billion litres per month, or 57 million litres per day, starting in February 2026 as refining operations expand.

The refinery formalised this commitment in a letter addressed to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). Dated November 30, 2025, and signed by the company’s Chief Executive Officer, David Bird, the correspondence requested regulatory cooperation to ensure seamless operations, transparent reporting, and uninterrupted product distribution nationwide.

Call for Onsite Verification and Full Transparency

As part of its plan to build public trust and assure market stability, Dangote Refinery invited NMDPRA officials to be physically present at the refinery from December 1, 2025. Their role would be to verify and publicly publish the refinery’s daily production figures, stock levels, and product availability.

In the letter, Bird emphasised that real-time transparency is critical to boosting public confidence, especially at a time when Nigerians remain concerned about irregular supply patterns, import dependency, and rising fuel prices. Publishing daily output data—across online platforms and print media—would, according to the refinery, help dispel doubts about domestic capacity and demonstrate the refinery’s consistency in meeting national demand.

Operational Challenges and the “Nigeria First” Supply Policy

The refinery also appealed to NMDPRA to ensure the smooth importation of crude oil, feedstock, and blending components necessary for its operations. According to the letter, Dangote Refinery continues to face delays in vessel clearance, which disrupt refining schedules, inflate operational costs, and ultimately affect consumers at the pump.

Bird described these delays as avoidable inefficiencies, noting that eliminating them would strengthen Nigeria’s fuel security and support the federal government’s “Nigeria First” policy—a strategy prioritising domestic refining over import-driven supply chains.

“The Dangote refinery is ready and able to supply Nigeria’s PMS needs,” Bird stated. “We will appreciate your support to secure Nigeria’s domestic fuel security and abundance. Please allow the ‘Nigeria First’ policy to work to the benefit of all Nigerians.”

A Potential Turning Point for Nigeria’s Downstream Sector

The refinery’s pledge comes at a critical time for Nigeria’s downstream sector, which for years has struggled with unpredictable supplies and chronic dependence on imported petrol. Despite modest contributions from smaller local refineries, imports remain the backbone of domestic PMS availability.

Dangote Refinery—Africa’s largest single-train refinery—has long been positioned as a transformative project for Nigeria’s energy ecosystem, with the potential to reverse decades of fuel import dependence. The commitment to supply more than 50 million litres daily represents a major step toward that goal.

The refinery’s willingness to open its operations to regulatory scrutiny further signals confidence in its production capacity and a bid to establish itself as the dominant supplier of PMS within the country.

Regulatory Insights and National Consumption Trends

The NMDPRA recently reported that Nigeria consumed an average of 56.74 million litres of petrol daily in October 2025. Of this amount, 27.6 million litres were supplied through imports, while 17.08 million litres came from domestic refining operations.

Although the gap remains significant, the regulatory authority noted that the share of locally sourced PMS has been rising gradually. Dangote Refinery’s new production plan—if executed consistently—could not only close the supply deficit but potentially allow Nigeria to eliminate PMS imports altogether.

Implications for Fuel Security and Economic Stability

If successful, Dangote’s monthly supply of 1.5–1.7 billion litres marks a major milestone in Nigeria’s quest for energy self-sufficiency. Reduced reliance on imports could stabilise pump prices, improve foreign exchange savings, and ease pressure on the naira—long strained by high dollar demand from fuel importers.

Moreover, the refinery’s operational scale provides an opportunity for the government to reposition Nigeria as a regional petroleum hub capable of exporting surplus products across West and Central Africa.

As the December rollout approaches, stakeholders will be watching closely to assess whether Dangote Refinery’s output and distribution can match its ambitious commitments—and whether regulatory collaboration will ensure the “Nigeria First” policy delivers on its promise of fuel security, affordability, and transparency.

Atiku Calls for Independent Inquiry Into N17.5 Trillion Pipeline Security Expenditure

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has demanded an immediate, transparent, and independent investigation into the staggering N17.5 trillion reportedly spent by the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration on pipeline security and related costs within a single fiscal year.

Atiku described the expenditure as unprecedented, deeply troubling, and a “moral indictment” on the federal government, warning that such a vast outlay—coming at a time of widespread economic hardship—raises fundamental questions about accountability and governance.

In a statement issued by the Atiku Media Office on Sunday night, the former Vice President noted that the expenditure figure, as reflected in the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s (NNPCL) 2024 audited financial statements, exceeds Nigeria’s total spending on fuel subsidy for more than a decade. According to him, this scale of expenditure makes the report one of the most significant financial controversies in Nigeria’s recent history.

A Spending Pattern That Raises Concerns

Atiku emphasized that the N17.5 trillion allocation dwarfs the N18 trillion spent on fuel subsidy over a 12-year period—an intervention that, in his words, directly cushioned economic pressure for millions of Nigerians by stabilising transportation costs and keeping food prices within reach. By contrast, he argued, the current administration has committed nearly the same amount in one year to pipeline security—an area that has long been plagued by opacity, overlapping contracts, and political patronage.

He described the development as alarming, alleging that the bulk of the funds appears to have been channeled to companies and individuals with close political ties to President Tinubu. The statement characterised the expenditure as “one of the most brazen financial scandals in our nation’s history,” adding that such spending cannot be justified under any fiscally responsible framework, especially amid declining living standards and a weakened currency.

Allegations of Opaqueness and Cronyism

According to the statement, the administration’s elimination of petrol subsidy—presented as a bold step toward fiscal responsibility—has now been overshadowed by what Atiku called “grand larceny dressed as public expenditure.”

He argued that while Nigerians now purchase petrol at over N1,000 per litre in several states, the NNPCL recorded massive expenditures under categories such as “energy-security costs” and “under-recovery”—terms he said remain vague and insufficiently explained to the public.

Citing NNPCL’s audited figures, Atiku pointed out that:

N7.13 trillion was spent on energy-security costs; and
N8.67 trillion was spent on under-recovery within the same financial year.

These amounts, he said, are deeply questionable given the administration’s repeated insistence that petrol subsidy has been fully removed.

Atiku stressed that Nigerians deserve full disclosure, not only to ascertain the legitimacy of these allocations but also to determine whether the expenditures align with national priorities during a period of severe inflation, rising food insecurity, and weakening consumer purchasing power.

Context From NNPCL’s Financial Performance

The controversy emerges against the backdrop of strong financial reporting by the NNPCL. In its recently released audited financial statement for the year ended 2024, the national oil company posted:

N45.1 trillion in revenue, representing an 88% year-on-year increase; and
N5.4 trillion in Profit After Tax, a 64% jump from 2023.

The figures reflect consistent growth, as NNPCL recorded a net profit of N3.297 trillion in 2023—a 28% increase from the N2.548 trillion posted in 2022.

However, Atiku argues that these profit figures do not in any way reduce the need for scrutiny, especially when expenditure items of such magnitude appear inconsistent with the government’s stated fiscal direction.

A Call for Accountability

Atiku insisted that the only way to restore public trust is through an independent probe conducted by credible, neutral institutions. He emphasized that such an inquiry must not be handled by individuals or bodies with political or institutional ties to the Tinubu administration.

He maintained that Nigerians have the right to know who received the contracts, how much was paid to each contractor, what specific services were delivered, and whether the spending aligns with global benchmarks for pipeline surveillance and energy infrastructure protection.

Without such transparency, Atiku warned, the allegations surrounding the N17.5 trillion expenditure could further erode investor confidence, damage Nigeria’s global reputation, and worsen the already fragile economic environment.

The issue is likely to intensify national debates around public finance management, subsidy removal, and the governance of Nigeria’s petroleum resources as the country heads into another fiscal cycle.

Nigeria’s New Tax Act May Undermine Business Competitiveness, Investor Confidence — Report

A new economic assessment by the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics LTD/GTE has raised significant concerns over the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, warning that several provisions in the newly enacted law could weaken business competitiveness, dampen investor confidence, and reduce Nigeria’s attractiveness as an investment destination in Africa.

Signed into law in June 2025 and scheduled for nationwide implementation on January 1, 2026, the Nigeria Tax Act represents one of the most extensive attempts at tax reform in the country’s recent history. It consolidates more than a dozen existing tax laws into a unified framework aimed at modernizing tax administration, boosting transparency, and expanding government revenue amid persistent fiscal pressures.

A Major Restructuring of Nigeria’s Tax Framework

According to the Alliance’s analysis, the government’s stated objectives include reducing tax leakages, tightening compliance, curbing evasion, and ensuring that all sectors of the economy contribute equitably to national development. The reforms are also intended to stabilize revenue inflows in the face of declining oil earnings and rising public debt.

However, the report notes growing unease among businesses, investors, and industry stakeholders, many of whom believe the scale of the changes—and the speed of implementation—could impose severe financial and administrative burdens. Analysts argue that the absence of adequate transitional arrangements may disrupt business planning, heighten uncertainty, and increase the cost of doing business in Nigeria.

The Alliance summarized its concerns succinctly: “The severe increase in the Capital Gains Tax, the imposition of a new Development Levy, the uncertainty cast upon the Free Trade Zones, and the unusual domicile of the Single Window Trade Platform threaten to cripple the very investment and business growth that Nigeria desperately needs to secure its long-term economic future.”

Key Provisions Drawing Criticism

One of the most contentious elements of the Act is the sharp increase in Capital Gains Tax (CGT) for companies, from 10% to 30%. This aligns CGT with the corporate income tax rate—a shift that analysts describe as unprecedented in modern Nigerian tax policy. According to the report, the move represents “a seismic shock to the investment landscape,” as higher CGT could reduce investor returns, discourage mergers and acquisitions, and diminish venture capital and private equity activity.

Another significant change is the introduction of a 4% Development Levy on assessable profits. While the government argues that consolidating multiple small levies into a single charge will improve efficiency, experts warn that the new levy could strain companies operating on thin margins, including manufacturers, retailers, agribusiness firms, and logistics operators.

The Act also introduces a 15% minimum tax rate for multinational corporations with turnover above €750 million, as well as for large domestic companies earning over N50 billion annually. Though aligned with global OECD standards, the requirement is expected to increase compliance costs and administrative workload for affected corporations.

Equally controversial is the removal of longstanding tax incentives for Free Trade Zone (FTZ) operators. Previously considered a cornerstone of Nigeria’s investment promotion strategy, FTZ incentives attracted manufacturers, exporters, and logistics firms to Nigeria. The report describes their abrupt abolishment as “ambiguous and destabilizing,” warning that Nigeria may lose investors to regional competitors offering more predictable incentives.

The Act also expands taxation on digital assets, updates personal income tax bands to become more progressive, and centralizes several administrative functions under a Single Window Trade Platform—a decision the report says lacks clarity on governance structure.

Potential Economic Risks Identified

The Alliance warns that the cumulative effect of the new measures could have far-reaching consequences for Nigeria’s economy. The 200% CGT increase, for instance, is projected to slow long-term capital formation, discourage startup investment, and weaken the deal-making environment essential to innovation-driven growth.

Similarly, the 4% Development Levy may worsen inflationary pressures, particularly for sectors already facing high energy and logistics costs.

Removing FTZ incentives, analysts argue, could redirect investment flows to emerging African markets such as Ghana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia, which are currently lowering business costs and simplifying regulatory frameworks to attract foreign direct investment (FDI).

Large corporations will also face increased reporting obligations under the minimum tax regime, raising compliance costs and potentially reducing operational efficiency.

Opportunities Amid the Concerns

Despite the criticisms, the report acknowledges that the Tax Act contains provisions that could improve long-term fiscal sustainability. The 15% minimum tax may help level the playing field between multinational firms and domestic competitors. Consolidating several levies into a single Development Levy simplifies the tax system, while existing exemptions for SMEs ensure that micro and small enterprises retain room for reinvestment and growth.

If effectively implemented, the reforms could expand Nigeria’s tax base, reduce leakages, and strengthen public-sector accountability.

Regional Competitiveness Under AfCFTA

The report compares Nigeria’s tax direction with ongoing reforms in other African economies:

Ghana is removing nuisance taxes to attract investment.
Ethiopia is cutting tariffs for AfCFTA members.
Rwanda continues to prioritize regulatory stability to attract FDI.

Analysts warn that Nigeria’s heavier tax burden could erode its competitiveness under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), particularly as manufacturing and export-oriented firms seek lower-cost bases across the continent.

Recommendations and Conclusion

To mitigate risks, the Alliance recommends moderating the CGT increase through a phased approach beginning at 15%, redesigning FTZ incentives rather than abolishing them, issuing comprehensive implementation guidelines through the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), and aligning tax reforms with AfCFTA competitiveness goals.

Ultimately, the report cautions that if strategic adjustments are not made, the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025 may “function more as a constraint than a catalyst” for economic growth. With other African markets aggressively improving their business environments, Nigeria must carefully recalibrate its approach before the Act takes effect in January 2026.

Nigeria Receives $20.9 Billion in Capital Inflows in 2025, Signalling Strong Investor Confidence — Cardoso

Nigeria has recorded one of its strongest external sector performances in nearly a decade, attracting $20.98 billion in foreign capital inflows in the first ten months of 2025. This was disclosed by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, during the 60th Annual Bankers’ Dinner, where he highlighted the country’s improving macroeconomic stability, renewed policy credibility, and rising investor confidence.

According to Cardoso, the $20.98 billion figure represents a significant leap—amounting to a 70% increase over total capital inflows recorded in 2024 and an extraordinary 428% surge compared to the $3.9 billion inflows captured in 2023. The governor noted that this dramatic improvement reflects a clear shift in global investor appetite for Nigerian assets, driven by reforms aimed at strengthening the foreign exchange market, enhancing transparency in financial operations, and rebuilding trust in monetary policy.

Although the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has only released capital importation data for the first quarter of 2025—showing Nigeria attracted $5.6 billion during Q1—Cardoso confirmed that inflows accelerated sharply across subsequent quarters. According to NBS historical data, capital imports stood at $3.9 billion in 2023 and $12.3 billion in 2024, making the 2025 performance particularly impressive.

External Sector Sees Decisive Improvement

The CBN governor further revealed that Nigeria’s current account balance strengthened significantly over the course of the year. The balance rose by more than 85%, climbing from $2.85 billion in the first quarter to $5.28 billion by the second quarter of 2025. Cardoso attributed this improvement to rising non-oil export earnings, improving FX inflows, and reforms that have made the FX market more efficient and market-driven.

Nigeria’s foreign reserves have also enjoyed a major boost, reaching $46.7 billion by mid-November 2025—its highest level in almost seven years. With over ten months of import cover, the country’s external buffers are now at their strongest point in a decade.

A particularly notable development, Cardoso stressed, is that the reserves are being rebuilt “organically—not through borrowing.” Instead, the growth is being driven by improved FX market functioning, stronger non-oil exports, and revitalized capital inflows. This marks a significant departure from previous periods where external reserve accumulation was often supported by external debt.

Non-Oil Exports, Remittances Drive Momentum

Despite oil production averaging between 1.45 million and 1.52 million barrels per day in 2025, the non-oil sector remained the standout growth driver. Cardoso reported that non-oil exports expanded by over 18% year-on-year, supported by improved competitiveness brought about by a more flexible and market-determined exchange rate regime.

The governor also highlighted improvements in diaspora remittances, which grew by approximately 12% in 2025. He attributed this rise to enhanced transparency and settlement efficiency in the FX ecosystem, as well as increased trust in official remittance channels. Further growth is expected in 2026 as adoption of the Non-Resident Bank Verification Number (BVN) system—launched earlier in the year—continues to rise.

CBN Maintains Flexible FX Strategy

Cardoso reiterated the CBN’s commitment to maintaining a flexible exchange-rate framework that allows the naira to function as a shock absorber while reducing excess volatility. According to him, the FX reforms implemented over the past year are central to restoring macroeconomic stability and positioning Nigeria to attract sustainable long-term investment.

With capital inflows surging, external reserves rising, and remittances strengthening, Nigeria’s external sector appears poised for continued recovery heading into 2026.

Ecobank Nigeria Announces Tender Offer for Remaining 2026 Eurobond as Part of Balance Sheet De-Risking Strategy

Ecobank Nigeria Limited has initiated a new tender offer for the remaining US$150 million of its US$300 million 7.125% Senior Note Participation Notes due in February 2026, marking another major step in the bank’s ongoing liability management programme. The offer—which opened on Friday, 28 November 2025—gives eligible noteholders the option to sell their securities ahead of the February 16, 2026 maturity date.

Under the terms announced, investors whose notes are accepted will receive US$1,000 for every US$1,000 principal amount tendered, in addition to accrued and unpaid interest up to but excluding the settlement date. Ecobank expects the transaction to be settled on or before 31 December 2025.

The bank described the tender as a continuation of its proactive effort to optimise its capital structure, improve financial flexibility, and maintain stability in the face of persistent macroeconomic challenges. Management emphasised that participation remains voluntary and at the sole discretion of noteholders, but the bank believes the offer provides an attractive opportunity for investors seeking liquidity before year-end.

This latest tender follows a similar move four months earlier, when Ecobank Nigeria successfully repurchased US$150 million—half of the Eurobond—through a tender offer and exit consent process executed in July 2025. That earlier buyback represented a milestone in the bank’s balance sheet clean-up, supported by stronger cash flows, improved loan recoveries, and early settlement of promissory notes from the parent company, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI).

Market indicators at the time suggested stable investor confidence, with the bond trading near par. Bondholders also approved the removal of a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) covenant that had previously been attached to the instrument. The covenant was triggered in 2024 after Ecobank’s CAR dipped to 7.65%, below the 10% regulatory requirement for national banks—a decline largely driven by a sharp depreciation of the naira. Since then, the bank has been implementing a recovery plan anchored on stronger profits, strict cost control, and capital support from ETI.

Originally, Ecobank had stated its intention to redeem the outstanding US$150 million at maturity in February 2026, subject to market conditions. However, the new tender offer accelerates that timeline, positioning the bank to retire nearly the entire Eurobond two months ahead of schedule.

Analysts say the early tender signals prudent liquidity management and reduces refinancing risk—an important consideration given rising global borrowing costs and ongoing macroeconomic volatility. For investors, the offer provides an opportunity to rebalance portfolios before year-end while still receiving full principal value and accrued interest.

The move also mirrors broader deleveraging across the ETI Group. As of September 2025, the Group reduced its borrowed funds by 15% to N2.83 trillion, representing 6% of total assets, down from 8% in December 2024. The Group’s financial health has also shown marked improvement. In Q3 2025, Ecobank reported one of its strongest quarterly results in years, with pre-tax profit up 47% year-on-year to N394.6 billion and profit after tax rising 48% to N268.5 billion. For the first nine months of 2025, Group pre-tax profit hit N1.01 trillion, up 42% year-on-year, while profit after tax climbed 43% to N702.4 billion.

The balance sheet remains resilient, with total assets rising 11% to N47.97 trillion. Customer deposits continue to power the Group’s funding strength, reaching N35.68 trillion—equivalent to 74% of total assets. While operating expenses increased modestly by 3% to N446.2 billion amid inflationary pressures, the bank also strengthened its risk buffers by increasing impairment charges by 64% to N129.7 billion.

Ecobank’s decision to launch the new tender offer reinforces its commitment to early risk reduction, disciplined capital planning, and long-term balance sheet stability as it enters the final stretch of the Eurobond’s lifecycle.

FATF Exit Saves Nigeria $30 Billion in Potential Investment Loss — Cardoso

Nigeria’s recent removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list has delivered a major boost to the country’s financial reputation and safeguarded the economy from losing more than $30 billion in potential capital inflows. This was revealed by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, during his keynote address at the annual Bankers’ Dinner hosted by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos.

Cardoso described Nigeria’s exit from the grey list as one of the most important developments of the year, noting that the achievement reflects a coordinated national effort led by the Federal Government and supported by the CBN and other key institutions. According to him, the FATF’s decision has effectively restored global confidence in Nigeria’s financial system and significantly reduced the compliance pressure previously faced by local and international banks when processing cross-border transactions.

Citing global economic research, the CBN Governor explained that countries placed on the FATF grey list typically witness a 7.6% decline in capital inflows during the first year of listing. For Nigeria, he noted, this would have translated into more than $30 billion in foregone investment, a burden the economy could ill-afford at a time of heightened foreign exchange pressures and efforts to stimulate growth. “Exiting the grey list signals a major restoration of confidence and reduces friction for correspondent banking relationships,” Cardoso stated.

The CBN Governor highlighted that Nigeria’s removal from the list did not happen by accident. Instead, it was the result of deliberate reforms designed to address deficiencies identified during FATF’s prior assessments. These reforms included tightening the supervision of financial institutions, improving the quality and consistency of reports on suspicious and cross-border transactions, and enhancing intelligence-sharing between regulatory agencies and law enforcement bodies.

Cardoso emphasized that Nigeria had also deployed modern governance and compliance technologies that strengthened monitoring and enforcement capabilities across the financial ecosystem. Among the tools mentioned were the Electronic Financial Evaluation Monitoring System (EFEMS) and the Foreign Exchange (FX) Code of Conduct, both of which introduced stricter transparency requirements and improved regulatory oversight.

Nigeria’s removal from the grey list comes after almost three years of heightened scrutiny and reputational risk. In October, the FATF formally announced the country’s exit, alongside South Africa, Burkina Faso, and Mozambique—countries that similarly implemented wide-ranging reforms to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. The decision marked a significant breakthrough for Nigeria, which had faced concerns from global watchdogs about the robustness of its financial integrity systems.

The exit has already had tangible effects on market sentiment. According to financial reports, the naira showed signs of stabilization and mild strengthening against the US dollar following the announcement, indicating renewed confidence among investors and market participants. The development also reduces the compliance burden on Nigerian banks, which previously had to meet heightened documentation and verification requirements when engaging with global financial institutions.

President Bola Tinubu welcomed the FATF decision, calling it a clear demonstration of Nigeria’s commitment to international financial transparency and anti-money laundering standards. He praised the collaborative effort of national institutions that worked to secure the country’s exit and reiterated his administration’s commitment to reforms that support sustainable economic growth.

As one of the world’s leading standard-setting bodies, the FATF is responsible for establishing global frameworks for combating money laundering, terrorism financing, and proliferation financing. Nigeria’s removal from its grey list not only restores credibility but also positions the country more favorably for future investment flows, international partnerships, and cross-border financial cooperation.

NNPC Ltd Reports N5.08 Trillion October Revenue as Gas Output Surges

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has announced a substantial rise in its revenue profile, posting N5.08 trillion in October 2025. This represents a significant increase from the N4.27 trillion recorded in September, reinforcing the company’s strengthened operational performance and the positive momentum within Nigeria’s energy sector.

The figures were disclosed in the company’s Monthly Report Summary for October, which also revealed that profit after tax (PAT) more than doubled month-on-month. NNPC Ltd recorded N447 billion in PAT for October, compared to N216 billion in September—an outcome the company attributes to improved market conditions, enhanced cost-optimisation strategies, and a more stable operating environment.

According to the report, the rise in profitability underscores both internal efficiency measures and renewed confidence in Nigeria’s petroleum and gas value chains. It further highlights the national oil company’s accelerated investment in infrastructure and its ongoing push toward strengthening domestic energy security.

A major driver of the improved financial performance was increased natural gas production. NNPC Ltd reported total gas output of 6,997 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d) in October, a notable increase from 6,284 mmscf/d in September. Gas sales—tracked on an M-2 basis—also climbed significantly, rising to 4,713 mmscf/d from 3,443 mmscf/d the month before. The company explained that the improvements reflect ongoing efforts to expand Nigeria’s gas value chain, enhance supply reliability to power generators and industrial users, and boost gas availability for export.

In contrast, crude oil production experienced a slight decline. Output fell to 1.58 million barrels of oil per day (mmbopd) in October from 1.61 mmbopd in September. The report attributes the temporary dip to planned maintenance activities, delays in restarting certain assets, and disruptions caused by flooding in some operational fields. The company, however, emphasised that it expects full production recovery by mid-December.

NNPC Ltd also provided updates on major strategic projects, particularly the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline, one of the Federal Government’s flagship gas infrastructure investments. According to the report, additional manpower and resources have been deployed to expedite work across multiple construction corridors. The company expressed confidence that the mainline segment of the AKK pipeline will be completed before the end of 2025, paving the way for expanded domestic gas utilisation and new industrial growth opportunities across northern Nigeria.

In further detail, NNPC Ltd highlighted plans to execute all scheduled maintenance operations across key offshore and onshore assets, including Stardeep–Agbami, Esso–Erha, Renaissance–EA, and OML 42, within the November–December project window. Production volumes were said to be temporarily affected by maintenance activities at Usan and SEPNU, delays at WAEP (OML 71 & 72), and flooding-related shut-ins at OML 143.

The October performance builds on NNPC Ltd’s strong full-year 2024 results, where the company reported N5.4 trillion in profit after tax from total revenue of N45.1 trillion. NNPC Ltd reiterated that it is accelerating investment across upstream fields, gas infrastructure, and clean energy solutions to sustain long-term growth. Earlier in the month, the company announced a target of attracting $60 billion in investments by 2030, supported by strategic partnerships and initiatives aimed at driving Africa’s broader energy transformation.

CBN Nears Release of Revised FX Manual to Expand Market Participation and Boost Confidence

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced that it is in the final stages of completing a revised Foreign Exchange (FX) manual—an update the apex bank says will play a central role in its ongoing efforts to improve transparency, strengthen governance, and restore market confidence in the naira.

CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, disclosed this during his keynote address at the 2025 Annual Bankers’ Dinner hosted by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos. The event, which convenes senior bankers, regulators, and financial experts, served as a platform for Cardoso to outline the institution’s latest strategies to stabilise Nigeria’s FX landscape and address long-standing distortions that have plagued the market.

Cardoso explained that the revised FX manual is not merely a procedural update but a foundational part of a broader set of reforms targeting efficiency, predictability, and ethical conduct among market participants. According to him, the manual will incorporate clearer operational rules, stricter documentation requirements, expanded participation guidelines, and enhanced surveillance mechanisms through Nigeria’s electronic FX management ecosystem.

“To strengthen this framework further, we will shortly be unveiling the revised foreign exchange manual to expand market participation, tighten documentation standards, enhance EFMs surveillance and ensure consistency,” Cardoso said.

Deepening Reforms Through Technology and Governance

The Governor reiterated that several reforms introduced earlier in the year—including the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Code—have already created a stronger base for market transparency and discipline. The FX Code, approved in January, provides ethical guidance for authorized dealers, setting out standards for fair dealing, risk management, compliance, and professional conduct in FX transactions.

Cardoso highlighted that adherence to this code is mandatory and warned that any violation will attract significant regulatory sanctions. His message underscored the CBN’s renewed emphasis on governance, a theme he has repeatedly emphasized since taking office.

Additionally, the deployment of the electronic Foreign Exchange Management System (EFMs), powered by Bloomberg’s BMAT technology, has transformed FX operations by mandating the submission of all FX orders and enabling real-time oversight by regulators. The system also supports improved price discovery and trade transparency—two areas where Nigeria’s FX framework has historically faced skepticism from investors and international partners.

Why the Revised Manual Matters

The revised FX manual is expected to harmonize operational rules, reduce ambiguity, and bring greater predictability to a market often characterized by volatility and information gaps. With clearer compliance requirements and updated documentation processes, the CBN expects to curb malpractices, encourage wider participation, and build trust with global markets.

The initiative also aligns with Nigeria’s broader push to attract foreign investment, stabilize inflationary pressures, and support the naira’s recovery. Over the past year, Nigeria’s FX market has undergone significant turbulence driven by backlogs, supply shortages, rate fragmentation, and speculative pressures.

Against this backdrop, Cardoso’s announcement signals a deliberate effort to provide consistency and reassert regulatory authority.

Naira Performance Shows Signs of Stability

Recent data from the CBN also indicates that the naira has posted its strongest performance in weeks. The currency traded below the N1,450 per dollar threshold for four consecutive days, marking a notable improvement from earlier periods when it consistently closed above that level.

It ended the week at N1,446.9/$1—an outcome analysts attribute partly to tightening CBN controls, increased FX supply from remittances and autonomous sources, and strengthened market enforcement.

Looking Ahead

The forthcoming FX manual marks one of the most anticipated regulatory updates in recent years. Financial analysts say its effectiveness will hinge on consistent enforcement, stakeholder buy-in, and the CBN’s ability to sustain liquidity improvements in the official market.

Cardoso, however, expressed confidence that the reforms—supported by technology, stronger governance, and clearer rules—will set Nigeria on a more stable FX trajectory and create a system in which both domestic and international participants can engage with greater trust.

US Treasury Warns Money Service Firms to Heighten Scrutiny on Remittances Linked to Undocumented Immigrants

The United States Department of the Treasury has issued a strong advisory urging money service businesses (MSBs) to intensify monitoring of cross-border transfers involving individuals without legal immigration status. The directive—released through the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN)—signals a tightening of federal enforcement focused on remittances suspected of being linked to illicit activity, including unlawful employment, trafficking networks, and other forms of financial crime.

In an alert titled FinCEN Alert on Cross-Border Funds Transfers Involving Illegal Aliens, the agency emphasized that MSBs must remain vigilant when processing funds connected to undocumented individuals. The memo reiterates long-standing reporting obligations, particularly the requirement to file Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) for transactions from $2,000 and above when there is reason to believe the funds may be tied to a violation of U.S. law.

According to the advisory, MSBs are expected to identify and report cross-border transactions derived from unlawful employment or any other activity through which undocumented individuals may have obtained money illegally. The Treasury warned that some individuals without legal status attempt to move funds across borders specifically to evade scrutiny from law enforcement agencies and financial regulators.

FinCEN explained that the alert forms part of a broader government effort to prevent exploitation of the U.S. financial system. It aligns with Executive Order 14159, Protecting the American People Against Invasion, which describes illegal aliens as posing a “significant threat to national security and public safety.” The order calls for the dismantling of networks that facilitate cross-border human smuggling, trafficking, and other illegal activities. According to Treasury officials, the alert is intended to help MSBs better detect patterns consistent with these criminal enterprises.

The memo also cites data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showing that personal remittances from immigrants in the United States to foreign recipients exceeded $72 billion in 2024. While the Treasury acknowledged that the vast majority of remittances are lawful and serve as essential support for families abroad, it cautioned that low-dollar transfers have historically been exploited by criminal organizations. FinCEN noted that such transfers—often small enough to avoid immediate suspicion—have been used to finance terrorism, drug trafficking operations, money laundering networks, and other illicit schemes.

This sharpened scrutiny comes during a period of sweeping immigration and financial policy changes under the Trump administration. President Donald Trump recently announced a wide-ranging overhaul of migration rules, including a permanent pause on immigration from “Third World Countries.” He also moved to terminate federal benefits and subsidies for noncitizens, arguing that government support should be reserved exclusively for citizens and lawful permanent residents.

In addition, the administration has ordered a comprehensive review of all asylum approvals and Green Cards issued under previous administrations for citizens of 19 countries. Trump described the policy shift as necessary to address populations deemed disruptive, unlawful, or “not net assets” to the United States. The FinCEN alert reinforces this broader national stance, signaling the administration’s intention to limit both illegal presence and the financial systems that may indirectly support it.

For MSBs, the Treasury’s message is clear: any cross-border funds transfer involving undocumented immigrants—especially those at or above the $2,000 threshold—must be carefully examined, verified, and reported where suspicion arises. With heightened expectations and more aggressive federal oversight, compliance officers across the financial services sector now face increased responsibility in detecting and reporting any activity that could be tied to illegal employment, trafficking networks, or other criminal operations involving undocumented individuals.

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